Sometimes I don't really realize how much I actually use probability every single day. For example, yesterday I had a class at 10am, and my exact thought running through my head as I'm lying in bed is, "What are the chances that there is going to be an in class activity today? Will I lose points if I keep sleeping?" That is just one example of me thinking about and analyzing the probability of a certain situation.
For a homework assignment in our coursework, it was to make a comment on Facebook about probability that we recognize in our everyday lives. A really good example that I read, was about the chances of me guessing on a multiple choice test and actually getting it correct. If there are four choices on the test, A,B,C,D, there is a 25% chance that I would get it correct. Which is terrible probability for a test if you ask me. But another chance to increase your probability of getting it right is when I may eliminate a choice all together because I am certain that it is incorrect, then I am guessing between 3 different choices and my chances increase to 33%.
Another good example that I noticed was the weather. In Michigan, everyone knows that Michigan weather is out of wack, so we usually don't rely on the probability of a certain weather occurring. Our type of weather varies from hour to hour, so this is an example when probability is harder to calculate.
Overall, probability happens in our day to day lives when we don't even realize it, and that is what concludes us to become critical thinkers.
To make into an exemplar you would want to develop this good intro into some of the ideas about probability that we investigated in class. (likelihood, how to make it numerical, experimental vs theoretical)
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the whole 25% chance thing is really scary!! i learned about that in my probability and statistics class in high school and since then i always think about it while taking tests.
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